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Police Patrols and Crime

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  • Blanes i Vidal, Jordi
  • Mastrobuoni, Giovanni

Abstract

An influential literature has used the aftermath of terrorist attacks to estimate large effects of police street deployment on crime. However, the elasticities obtained in these settings may not easily extrapolate to more standard circumstances. This paper exploits a natural experiment that aimed to increase police presence in more than 6,000 well-defined areas, by economically-realistic amounts and under relatively normal circumstances. Using data transmitted by GPS devices worn by police officers, we first document exogenous and discontinuous changes in patrolling intensity. We then find that the relation between crime and police patrolling is not statistically different from zero, and that the standard errors are small enough to reject relatively small elasticities. We discuss and empirically evaluate explanations for the apparent lack of deterrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanes i Vidal, Jordi & Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2017. "Police Patrols and Crime," CEPR Discussion Papers 12266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & Robert Witt, 2011. "Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2157-2181, August.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2015. "Police Disruption and Performance: Evidence from Recurrent Redeployments within a City," IZA Discussion Papers 8799, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Paul Heaton & Priscillia Hunt & John MacDonald & Jessica Saunders, 2016. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Private Law Enforcement: Evidence from University Police," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 889-912.
    5. Klick, Jonathan & Tabarrok, Alexander, 2005. "Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 267-279, April.
    6. John M. MacDonald & Jonathan Klick & Ben Grunwald, 2016. "The effect of private police on crime: evidence from a geographic regression discontinuity design," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 831-846, June.
    7. Larson, Richard C., 1975. "What happened to patrol operations in Kansas city? A review of the Kansas city preventive patrol experiment," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 267-297.
    8. Levitt, Steven D, 1998. "Why Do Increased Arrest Rates Appear to Reduce Crime: Deterrence, Incapacitation, or Measurement Error?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 353-372, July.
    9. Aaron Chalfin & Justin McCrary, 2017. "Criminal Deterrence: A Review of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(1), pages 5-48, March.
    10. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2004. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 115-133, March.
    11. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-290, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blesse, Sebastian & Diegmann, André, 2019. "Police reorganization and crime: Evidence from police station closures," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Police; Crime; Natural experiments; Deterrence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D29 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Other
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General

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