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The Golden Age of Economic Growth: Why Did Northern Ireland Miss Out?

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  • Crafts, Nicholas

Abstract

In this paper we examine the persistent effects of past wages of displaced workers on the probability of finding a new job and on wages in the new job. We use a new database looking at the post-displacement experience of a sample of Belgian workers who have lost their jobs because of a sizeable reduction in the work-force of their firm. We decompose past wages into a market return to human capital, a firm-specific component (the `firm effect'), and an individual component. We develop an information model of wages and test its predictions. These predictions are validated by the evidence on subsequent wages. We also find that spells of unemployment are long, but that re-employed workers suffer limited wage losses on re-employment. This suggests that some institutional constraints prevent wages from falling.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas, 1995. "The Golden Age of Economic Growth: Why Did Northern Ireland Miss Out?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1209
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Jordan & John Turner, 2021. "Northern Ireland's Productivity Challenge: Exploring the issues," Insight Papers 004, The Productivity Institute.
    2. McNeil, Andrew & Luca, Davide & Lee, Neil, 2023. "The long shadow of local decline: Birthplace economic adversity and long-term individual outcomes in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Cormac Ó Gráda & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2022. "The Irish economy during the century after partition," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(2), pages 336-370, May.
    4. Graham Brownlow & Esmond Birnie, 2018. "Rebalancing and Regional Economic Performance: Northern Ireland in A Nordic Mirror," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 58-73, February.
    5. Jordan, David, 2023. "Failing to level up? Industrial policy and productivity in interwar Northern Ireland," QUCEH Working Paper Series 23-04, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    6. Rensman, Marieke, 1996. "Economic growth and technological change in the long run : a survey of theoretical and empirical literature," Research Report 96C10, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. repec:dgr:rugsom:96c10 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Barry Eichengreen, 2023. "Jackson Hole 2023 - Global Financial Flows," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    9. Graham Brownlow, 2015. "Back to the failure: an analytic narrative of the De Lorean debacle," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 156-181, January.
    10. David Jordan, 2023. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Working Papers 031, The Productivity Institute.
    11. Cirer Costa, Joan Carles, 2019. "The Crumbling of Francoist Spain’s Isolationism Thanks to Foreign Currency Brought by European Tourists in the Early Years of the Golden Age," MPRA Paper 95578, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Northern Ireland; Peripherality; Supply-Side;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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