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A Vision of the Growth Process in a Technologically Progressive Economy: the United States, 1899-1941

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  • Crafts, Nicholas
  • Bakker, Gerben
  • Woltjer, Pieter

Abstract

We develop new aggregate and sectoral total factor productivity (TFP) estimates for the United States between 1899 and 1941 through better coverage of sectors and better measured labor quality, and show TFP growth was lower than previously thought, broadly based across sectors, strongly variant inter-temporally, and consistent with many diverse sources of innovation. we then test and reject three prominent claims. First, the 1930s did not have the highest TFP growth of the twentieth century. Second, TFP growth was not predominantly caused by four leading sectors. Third, TFP growth was not caused by a 'yeast process' originating in a dominant technology such as electricity.

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  • Crafts, Nicholas & Bakker, Gerben & Woltjer, Pieter, 2015. "A Vision of the Growth Process in a Technologically Progressive Economy: the United States, 1899-1941," CEPR Discussion Papers 10995, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10995
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    1. Petra Moser & Alessandra Voena & Fabian Waldinger, 2014. "German Jewish ?migr?s and US Invention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3222-3255, October.
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    3. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    4. Bakker, Gerben, 2013. "Money for nothing: How firms have financed R&D-projects since the Industrial Revolution," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 1793-1814.
    5. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    6. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Are ICT Spillovers Driving the New Economy?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(1), pages 33-57, March.
    7. Paul David & Gavin Wright, 1999. "Early Twentieth Century Productivity Growth Dynamics: An Inquiry into the Economic History of Our Ignorance," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Bakker, Gerben, 2012. "How Motion Pictures Industrialized Entertainment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1036-1063, December.
    9. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikollaq Pano & Ira Gjika, 2021. "American Advocacy to Education System Development: The Case of Albania," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 7(6), pages 24-34, February.
    2. Marianna Epicoco & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Anne Plunket, 2022. "Radical technologies, recombinant novelty and productivity growth: a cliometric approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 673-711, April.
    3. Nicholas Crafts, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: Exploring the Numbers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 57-60, May.
    4. O'Rourke, Kevin, 2015. "Economic impossibilities for our grandchildren?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.
    6. Klein, Alexander & Crafts, Nicholas, 2015. "Agglomeration Externalities and Productivity Growth : U.S. Cities in the Railroad Era, 1880-1930," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 235, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Alexander Klein & Nicholas Crafts, 2015. "Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth: U.S. Cities, 1880-1930," Studies in Economics 1514, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    8. Nicholas Crafts, 2017. "Is Slow Economic Growth the ‘New Normal’ for Europe?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 283-297, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Harberger diagram; Mushrooms; Productivity growth; TFP; Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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