IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpm/dynare/079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact de la guerre russo-ukrainienne sur le cours des produits de base exportés par les pays de la CEMAC

Author

Listed:
  • Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri
  • Badjeck Mvondo, Laureine

Abstract

Cet article évalue l’impact de la guerre russo-ukrainienne sur les cours des produits de base exportés par les pays de la CEMAC. Ce travail s’inscrit dans un contexte où les pays de la CEMAC, dont les recettes à l’exportation proviennent principalement des matières premières et énergétiques, voient les cours de ces dernières augmenter. De ce fait, la connaissance de l’impact réel de cette guerre sur les cours de ces produits s’avère importante dans l’optique de l’élaboration des politiques pertinentes pouvant permettre à ces pays de tirer profit. En ayant recours à un modèle DSGE, des simulations ont été faites sur les cours de ces produits de base « sans guerre » et « avec guerre ». Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que l’impact est plus prononcé sur les cours du gaz, du pétrole et de l’huile de palme de sorte qu’il faille au moins 40 mois pour qu’il soit restauré.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri & Badjeck Mvondo, Laureine, 2023. "Impact de la guerre russo-ukrainienne sur le cours des produits de base exportés par les pays de la CEMAC," Dynare Working Papers 79, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp079.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mvondo, Thierry, 2021. "Stabilisation et relance macroéconomiques post COVID-19 dans la CEMAC : Quels instruments pour quels effets dans un modèle DSGE ?," Dynare Working Papers 65, CEPREMAP.
    2. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    2. Jae Won Lee, 2012. "Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Households in a Sticky-Price Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 143, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    5. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Regionalne zróżnicowanie oddziaływania wydatków rządowych na zatrudnienie – wnioski z analizy SVAR," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 73-96.
    6. Carlos J. García & Pablo González M. & Antonio Moncado S., 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: a Structural Bayesian Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 24-63, April.
    7. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS84, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    8. IIDA Yasuyuki & MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi, 2009. "The Dynamic Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Policies: Were There Any Changes in the 1990s?," ESRI Discussion paper series 209, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Eric Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Susan Shu-Chun Yang, 2009. "Government Investment And Fiscal Stimulus In The Short And Long Runs," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    10. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    11. Tobias Cwik, 2012. "Fiscal consolidation using the example of Germany," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    13. Tobón Arias, Alexander, 2022. "La estructura lógica de la teoría del equilibrio general dinámico estocástico," Borradores Departamento de Economía 20477, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    14. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Daney, Valdivia & Marcelo, Montegro, 2011. "Boosting cycles and Stabilization effects of Fiscal Rules," MPRA Paper 32115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    17. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Huixin Bi, 2009. "Jointly Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules under Borrowing Constraints," IMF Working Papers 2009/286, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    20. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    guerre russo-ukrainienne; produits de base; modèle DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sébastien Villemot (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceprefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.