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Impact de la guerre russo-ukrainienne sur le cours des produits de base exportés par les pays de la CEMAC

Author

Listed:
  • Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri
  • Badjeck Mvondo, Laureine

Abstract

Cet article évalue l’impact de la guerre russo-ukrainienne sur les cours des produits de base exportés par les pays de la CEMAC. Ce travail s’inscrit dans un contexte où les pays de la CEMAC, dont les recettes à l’exportation proviennent principalement des matières premières et énergétiques, voient les cours de ces dernières augmenter. De ce fait, la connaissance de l’impact réel de cette guerre sur les cours de ces produits s’avère importante dans l’optique de l’élaboration des politiques pertinentes pouvant permettre à ces pays de tirer profit. En ayant recours à un modèle DSGE, des simulations ont été faites sur les cours de ces produits de base « sans guerre » et « avec guerre ». Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que l’impact est plus prononcé sur les cours du gaz, du pétrole et de l’huile de palme de sorte qu’il faille au moins 40 mois pour qu’il soit restauré.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri & Badjeck Mvondo, Laureine, 2023. "Impact de la guerre russo-ukrainienne sur le cours des produits de base exportés par les pays de la CEMAC," Dynare Working Papers 79, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:079
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mvondo, Thierry, 2021. "Stabilisation et relance macroéconomiques post COVID-19 dans la CEMAC : Quels instruments pour quels effets dans un modèle DSGE ?," Dynare Working Papers 65, CEPREMAP.
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    3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    guerre russo-ukrainienne; produits de base; modèle DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

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