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Leçons macroéconomiques de la Covid-19: une analyse pour la RDC

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  • Umba, Gilles Bertrand
  • Siasi, Yves
  • Lumbala, Grégoire

Abstract

Le présent travail se propose d’étudier l’impact macroéconomique de la COVID-19 sur l’activité économique en RD Congo. Pour ce faire, un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique et stochastique en économie ouverte est utilisé et les paramètres du modèles sont estimés en recourant à l’approche bayésienne. Les données estimées couvrent la période allant du premier trimestre 2012 au deuxième trimestre 2020. Les tests de diagnostics, notamment le test de convergence des chaines de Monte-Carlo Markov (MCMC) amènent à considérer que les paramètres sont fiables. Les résultats indiquent que: (i) le choc COVID-19 entrainerait une baisse sensible de l’output gap (y_t) jusqu’au 8ème trimestre après la survenance du choc; (ii) le niveau de consommation (c_t) subit également un effet baissier à la suite de la crise sanitaire jusqu’à plus de 10 trimestres après le choc; (iii) Le taux de change nominal (e_t) se déprécie également avec un effet de plus en plus atténué à partir du 6ème trimestre après le choc, et (iv) le terme de change subit également un effet négatif mais avec un intervalle de confiance plus important, ce qui pourrait éventuellement traduire un effet peut significatif suite à l’arrêt des échanges résultant des mesures de confinement.

Suggested Citation

  • Umba, Gilles Bertrand & Siasi, Yves & Lumbala, Grégoire, 2020. "Leçons macroéconomiques de la Covid-19: une analyse pour la RDC," Dynare Working Papers 64, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donald Kemajou Njatang, 2021. "Impact économique de la COVID‐19 au Cameroun: Les résultats du modèle SIR‐macro," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 126-138, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; Covid-19; Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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