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Estimating the Impact of Forced Sales on House Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Remco Mocking
  • Bastiaan Overvest

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

We study the price effects of forced sales on the Dutch housing market. A forced sale may result in a lower transaction price because of e.g. suboptimal incentives for revenue maximization. The lower transaction price may also spill over to regular (unforced) nearby transactions. We aim to measure both the forced sale discount and the spillover effect. We employ an unusual rich dataset for house transactions in the Netherlands between 2007 and 2013. To identify the effects of forced sales we control for very local neighborhood trends and detailed house characteristics. We find that a forced sale results in a price discount of about five percent. Each nearby forced sale reduces the transaction price by about 0.4 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Remco Mocking & Bastiaan Overvest, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Forced Sales on House Prices," CPB Discussion Paper 304, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lynn M. Fisher & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul Willen, 2015. "The Role of Proximity in Foreclosure Externalities: Evidence from Condominiums," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 119-140, February.
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    3. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
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    5. James D. Shilling & John D. Benjamin & C.F. Sirmans, 1990. "Estimating Net Realizable Value for Distressed Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 129-140.
    6. Thomas M. Carroll & Terrence M. Clauretie & Helen R. Neill, 1997. "Effect of Foreclosure Status on Residential Selling Price: Comment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-102.
    7. Steven D. Levitt & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Market Distortions When Agents Are Better Informed: The Value of Information in Real Estate Transactions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 599-611, November.
    8. Kristopher Gerardi & Eric Rosenblatt & Paul S. Willen & Vincent W. Yao, 2012. "Foreclosure externalities: some new evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Schuetz, Jenny & Been, Vicki & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2008. "Neighborhood effects of concentrated mortgage foreclosures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 306-319, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sander van Veldhuizen & Benedikt Vogt & Bart Voogt, 2016. "Negative Home Equity and Household Mobility: Evidence from Administrative Data," CPB Discussion Paper 323.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Sander van Veldhuizen & Benedikt Vogt & Bart Voogt, 2016. "Negative Home Equity and Household Mobility: Evidence from Administrative Data," CPB Discussion Paper 323, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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