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The social discount rate under a stochastic A2 scenario

Author

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  • Rob Aalbers

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Marjon Ruijter
  • Kees Oosterlee

    (CWI)

Abstract

Using a general equilibrium model in which both capital productivity and temperature are uncertain, we show that the social discount rate (SDR) will decline from 1% in 2010 to 0.6% in 2300 under the conventional, quadratic specification of the damage function, and to -2.0% under the reactive specification of the damage function. Moreover, interaction between economic and climate risks further lowers this estimate of the SDR by 0.9%. Surprisingly, the decline of the SDR never starts before 2100. We attribute this to the slow response of the earth's climate to increases in radiative forcing, thus highlighting the critical importance of properly taking into account the long-term dynamics of the climate system for the SDR. Interestingly, a substantial part of the decrease in the SDR under the reactive specification can be attributed to the presence of a term premium in long-run bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Aalbers & Marjon Ruijter & Kees Oosterlee, 2014. "The social discount rate under a stochastic A2 scenario," CPB Discussion Paper 296, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:296
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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