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Bayesian Semiparametric Forecasts of Real Interest Rate Data

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  • DESCHAMPS, Philippe J.

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

Abstract

The non-hierarchical Dirichlet process prior has been mainly used for parameters of innovation distributions. It is, however, easy to apply to all the parameters (coefficients of covariates and innovation variance) of more general regression models. This paper investigates the predictive performance of a simple (non-hierarchical) Dirichlet process mixture of Gaussian autoregressions for forecasting monthly US real interest rate data. The results suggest that the number of mixture components increases sharply over time, and the predictive marginal likelihoods strongly dominate those of a benchmark autoregressive model. Unconditional predictive coverage is vastly improved in the mixture model.

Suggested Citation

  • DESCHAMPS, Philippe J., 2016. "Bayesian Semiparametric Forecasts of Real Interest Rate Data," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2016050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2016050
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dirichlet process mixture; Bayesian nonparametrics; structural change; real interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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