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The first stage in Hendry’s reduction theory revisited

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  • SUCARRAT, Genaro

Abstract

The reduction theory of David F. Hendry provides a comprehensive probabilistic framework for the analysis and classification of the reductions associated with empirical econometric models. However, it is unable to provide an analysis on the sameunderlying probability space of the first reduction - and hence the subsequent reductions - given a commonplace theory of social reality, namely the joint hypotheses that the course of history is indeterministic, that history does not repeat itself, and that the future depends on the past. As a solution this essay proposes that the elements of the underlying outcome space in Hendry's theory are interpreted as indeterministic worlds made up of historically inherited particulars.

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  • SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006. "The first stage in Hendry’s reduction theory revisited," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006082, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2006082
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    theory of reduction; DGP; possible worlds; measurement error; probabilistic causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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