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The Chinese Economy from 1997:2015: Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model

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  • Yin Hua Mai

Abstract

MC-HUGE is a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. The core CGE part of the MC-HUGE model is based on that of the ORANI model. The dynamic mechanism of MC-HUGE is based on that of the MONASH model. This paper documents how the MC-HUGE model is calibrated to China's economic growth data from 1997 to 2005. It also reports how the model is used to forecast a growth path for the Chinese economy from 2005 to 2015. The historical and the forecast simulation produce a baseline or a business-as-usual scenario with which to compare the effects of any changes in economic policies or environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin Hua Mai, 2006. "The Chinese Economy from 1997:2015: Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-161, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-161
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Ji Feng & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Ya Xiong, 2012. "Is it in China's interest to implement an export carbon tax?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2072-2080.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; CGE modelling; economic growth; oil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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