IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000495/020607.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Introducción (empleando R) a los modelos univariados no lineales de series de tiempo: Modelo TAR

Author

Listed:
  • Julio César Alonso Cifuentes

Abstract

Hasta el momento hemos discutido modelos que suponen un comportamiento lineal. Por ejemplo, para modelos autoregresivos de orden 1 (AR(1)) es igual y de la misma magnitud la respuesta de la variable ante un cambio positivo o negativo de una unidad de la variable rezagada. Pero el mundo no necesariamente es lineal. Se podría esperar que las variables económicas reaccionen de manera diferente ante variaciones positivas o negativas. O se puede esperar una reacción diferente cuando una variable sobrepasa un determinado umbral. En este documento nos concentraremos en los modelos no-lineales; en especial el modelo Autoregresivo con umbral TAR (por su sigla del inglés Threshold Autoregressive Models) y otros modelos derivados de este. Así mismo, discutiremos cómo estimarlos en R.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio César Alonso Cifuentes, 2022. "Introducción (empleando R) a los modelos univariados no lineales de series de tiempo: Modelo TAR," Icesi Economics Working Papers 20607, Universidad Icesi.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000495:020607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.icesi.edu.co/departamentos/images/departamentos/FCAE/economia/documentos-de-trabajo/icesi-economics-lecture-notes.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. S. Chan & H. Tong, 1986. "On Estimating Thresholds In Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 179-190, May.
    2. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
    3. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    4. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    5. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julio César Alonso Cifuentes, 2022. "Introducción (empleando R) a los modelos univariados no lineales de series de tiempo: Modelo TAR," Icesi Economics Lecture Notes 20622, Universidad Icesi.
    2. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 413-457, Elsevier.
    3. Rossen Anja, 2016. "On the Predictive Content of Nonlinear Transformations of Lagged Autoregression Residuals and Time Series Observations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 389-409, May.
    4. Jyh‐Lin Wu & Pei‐Fen Chen & Ching‐Nun Lee, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity, Productivity Differentials And Non‐Linearity," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(3), pages 271-287, June.
    5. Sergio H. Lence & GianCarlo Moschini & Fabio Gaetano Santeramo, 2018. "Threshold cointegration and spatial price transmission when expectations matter," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 25-39, January.
    6. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    7. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2013. "Generalizing smooth transition autoregressions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, September.
    9. Shahbaba Babak, 2009. "Discovering Hidden Structures Using Mixture Models: Application to Nonlinear Time Series Processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Jack Strauss & Mark E. Wohar, 2007. "Domestic‐Foreign Interest Rate Differentials: Near Unit Roots and Symmetric Threshold Models," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 814-829, January.
    11. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2019:i:189 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Meyer, Jochen, 2004. "Measuring market integration in the presence of transaction costs--a threshold vector error correction approach," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 327-334, December.
    13. Karl-Heinz Schild & Karsten Schweikert, 2019. "On the Validity of Tests for Asymmetry in Residual-Based Threshold Cointegration Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Ming Chien Lo & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment to the Law of One Price," Working Papers 0030, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Subervie, Julie, 2011. "Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2239-2246, September.
    16. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    17. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    18. Felippe Cauê Serigati & Paulo Furquim De Azevedo, 2016. "How To Indirectly Measure Market Transaction Costs," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 192, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Tarlok Singh, 2012. "Testing nonlinearities in economic growth in the OECD countries: an evidence from SETAR and STAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3887-3908, October.
    20. Ahmad Jameel Khadaroo, 2016. "Current Account Deficit in Mauritius: Risks and Prospects," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 109-128, March.
    21. Komlan, Fiodendji, 2013. "The asymmetric reaction of monetary policy to inflation and the output gap: Evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 911-923.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TAR; SETAR; LSTAR; AAR; NARNN;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000495:020607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Coordinador ICESI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiceco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.