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Causas del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI: Evidencia a partir de un modelo var-x cointegrado

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  • Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuna
  • Paola Andrea Vaca González

Abstract

Este artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación acerca de los posibles determinantes del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI, mediante un modelo VAR-X cointegrado. El análisis de cointegración evidencia estadísticamente una relación de largo plazo entre las variables términos de intercambio, ventas reales, productividad laboral, empleo, salarios reales y desempleo. Al estimar el modelo y desarrollar el análisis de impulso respuesta, se concluye que las ventas reales son un factor importante para el desempleo en el corto plazo, como la productividad lo es en gran medida para el mediano y largo plazo. Este análisis se confirma con los resultados arrojados por la descomposición de varianza.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuna & Paola Andrea Vaca González, 2014. "Causas del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI: Evidencia a partir de un modelo var-x cointegrado," Revista de Economía del Caribe 14770, Universidad del Norte.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000382:014770
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    File URL: http://rcientificas.uninorte.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/5972/6568
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desempleo; Colombia; VAR-X cointegrado; análisis de impulso respuesta; descomposición de varianza.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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