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Banking Fragility in Colombia: An Empirical Analysis Based on Balance Sheets

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  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Alexander Guarín

Abstract

In this paper, we study the empirical relationship between credit funding sources and the financial vulnerability of the Colombian banking system. We propose a statistical model to measure and predict banking-fragility episodes associated with credit funding sources classified into retail deposits and wholesale funds. We compute the probability of financial fragility for both the aggregated banking system and the individual banks. Our approach performs a Bayesian averaging of estimated logit regression models with monthly balance sheet data between 1996 and 2013. The results show the increasing use of wholesale funding to support credit expansion is a potential source of financial fragility. Therefore, monitoring credit funding sources could provide an additional tool to warn against banking disruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Banking Fragility in Colombia: An Empirical Analysis Based on Balance Sheets," Borradores de Economia 11145, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011145
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    Cited by:

    1. Fanny Warman D., 2015. "Manejo del balance bancario en México," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 18, CEMLA.
    2. Guarin, Alexander & Lozano, Ignacio, 2017. "Credit funding and banking fragility: A forecasting model for emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 168-189.
    3. Alexander Guarín-López & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia, 2016. "Credit Funding and Banking Fragility: An Empirical Analysis for Emerging Economies," Borradores de Economia 14306, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit cycle; financial stability; wholesale funds; balance sheet; logistic model regression; Bayesian model averaging.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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