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¿Son Estilizadas Las Regularidades Del Ciclo Económico?Una Breve Revisión De La Literatura

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango T.
  • Mauricio Castillo

Abstract

Desde comienzos de siglo los economistas han estudiado los fenómenos recurrentes de auge y declive de la actividad económica. Prueba de ello son las investigaciones de Mitchell (1913, 1927), Kuznets (1926), y Mills (1936), así como el interés permanente del NBER en generar la información relacionada con dichos fenómenos para la economía norteamericana. Desde entonces los enfoques y la profundidad de las investigaciones han variado. Así, tanto las fases como los comovimientos y las características comunes (similitudes) de los ciclos han sido objeto de estudio por parte de los economistas. Sobre las fases, Mitchell (1913, 1927) destacó la existencia de expansiones, recesiones, contracciones y recuperaciones a lo largo del ciclo, mientras que Kuznets (1926) observó la existencia de algunas similitudes entre algunas economías a lo largo del ciclo económico. En relación con los comovimientos (contemporáneos, rezagados o adelantados) entre algunas variables económicas, Mills (1936) señaló la existencia de correlaciones entre precios y cantidades durante las expansiones y las contracciones económicas: correlaciones de signo positivo entre dichas variables eran indicativas de ciclos inducidos por fenómenos de demanda, mientras que correlaciones negativas eran indicativas de ciclos inducidos por la oferta. Después del surgimiento de la corriente Keynesiana, con la cual la determinación del ingreso ganó la mayor importancia, las discusiones sobre el ciclo económico pasaron a un segundo plano y fue sólo hasta Lucas (1972, 1975) cuando la caracterización de las fluctuaciones así como la explicación de sus causas se retomó con especial interés1. Sin embargo, ha sido durante las dos últimas décadas cuando se ha visto un mayor desarrollo en el estudio y medición sistemática de las fluctuaciones económicas, lo cual ha provocado un considerable debate macroeconómico. Una parte de estas investigaciones ha sido ensamblada en un cuerpo teórico conocido como enfoque del Ciclo Económico Real (CER), propuesto inicialmente por Kydland y Prescott (1982) y Long y Plosser (1983).

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Mauricio Castillo, 1999. "¿Son Estilizadas Las Regularidades Del Ciclo Económico?Una Breve Revisión De La Literatura," Borradores de Economia 3835, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003835
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lilian Carol Bohórquez Olarte & Jesús María Godoy Bejarano & Diego Fernando Téllez Falla, 2009. "Los ciclos del empleo regional en Colombia: dependencia interregional 2001-2006," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 27(58), pages 16-55, August.
    3. Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2008. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Colombiana:Fundamentos Empíricos para la Construcción y Evaluación de un Modelo DSGE," Borradores de Economia 4602, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 8328, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008 [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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