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Por Que Ha Crecido El Gasto Publico?

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada P.

Abstract

Es evidente la preocupación actual entre analistas y responsables de la política económica colombiana por las finanzas públicas del país. La preocupación tiene dos dimensiones: Las perspectivas sobre la suerte futura del déficit del sector público asociada a los ingresos y erogaciones del sistema de seguridad social, y el crecimiento casi continuo del gasto público total, más intenso que el del producto interno bruto, por lo menos desde los años 50. Puesto que el país ha venido soportando una o dos reformas tributarias por cuatrienio gubernamental en los últimos decenios, incluyendo en una de las más recientes el aumento de las cotizaciones a la seguridad social, la percepción general entre quienes tienen la mencionada preocupación parece inclinarse hacia el examen del gasto público, sin duda con la esperanza de que el freno a su expansión y algunos cambios en su composición permitan que la situación fiscal permanezca bajo control. ¿ Por qué ha crecido el gasto público? En las páginas siguientes se ofrece una respuesta. Pero la respuesta es apenas, una conjetura y se ubica en un nivel de abstracción bastante alto, quizás excesivamente alto a juicio de los lectores. Con todo, creo que la respuesta es útil para tratar de estimular nuevas reflexiones en vista de que tradicionalmente se ha considerado, en Colombia, que el gasto público es un dato exógeno, desde el punto de vista del economista, y que el gobierno es un ser benevolente que sólo por insuficiente información, "desgreño administrativo" e imposiciones jurídicas podría ejecutar un gasto público excesivo o ineficiente (1). Eso en cuanto al contenido. Por su forma, este documento es una nota académica. En el cuerpo central la nota se expresa de manera informal y, aparentemente, más sencilla. En el anexo toma forma matemática. (1) Esta Hipótesis es reiterada a lo largo del "Mensaje de la Comisión de Racionalización" (1996).

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada P., 1996. "Por Que Ha Crecido El Gasto Publico?," Borradores de Economia 3358, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003358
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1993. "Factor Shares and Savings in Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1184-1198, December.
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    7. Carlos A. Medina D. & Hernando Moreno G., 1995. "Desigualdad en la distribución del ingreso urbano en Colombia: un análisis de descomposición del coeficiente Gini," Coyuntura Social 13224, Fedesarrollo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.

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