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Transición demográfica, Tasas de retorno y Tasas de reemplazo de sistemas de pensiones de capitalización versus sistemas de reparto

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Montenegro
  • Jorge Llano
  • Juan Manuel Cáceres
  • Karim Fajury

Abstract

Este artículo analiza el impacto sobre las tasas de reemplazo que puede ofrecer un sistema de capitalización versus un sistema de reparto, ambos en equilibrio, tomando como base la transición demográfica y el retorno del capital. Lo anterior se conoce como las rentabilidades relativas de los regímenes pensionales, tema muy discutido en el pasado y, a pesar de que Thomas Piketty lo retomó en su libro El Capital en el siglo XXI, no ha recobrado la importancia que debería tener. En pocas palabras, si en una economía la tasa de retorno del capital es superior al crecimiento del ingreso (en particular, la suma de la tasa de crecimiento de la población más el crecimiento de los salarios) los sistemas de pensiones de capitalización son superiores a los sistemas de reparto. Este resultado es aplicable a la pensión promedio de un régimen general de pensiones de reparto, asumiendo que dicho régimen está en equilibrio (esto es, que las pensiones se financian exclusivamente con las cotizaciones) y no tienen en cuenta pensiones especiales, con subsidios que se otorgan a grupos particulares de la sociedad, usualmente, financiadas con el presupuesto nacional. Como resultado general, este trabajo argumenta que las tendencias demográficas reducirán los beneficios que reciban los futuros pensionados sin importar el sistema de pensiones que se adopte pero las tasas de reemplazo de los sistemas de reparto caen en mayor medida por los cambios en la composición demográfica (más viejos y menos jóvenes) que lo que cae la tasa de reemplazo de los sistemas de capitalización debido a los aumentos en la expectativa de vida de los futuros pensionados.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Montenegro & Jorge Llano & Juan Manuel Cáceres & Karim Fajury, 2015. "Transición demográfica, Tasas de retorno y Tasas de reemplazo de sistemas de pensiones de capitalización versus sistemas de reparto," Documentos CEDE 17314, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:017314
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2015. "Yes, r > g. So What?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 43-47, May.
    2. Mr. Masahiro Nozaki, 2017. "Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/098, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pensiones; demografía; envejecimiento; tasa de reemplazo; rentabilidad; seguridad social; régimen de capitalización; régimen de reparto; simulaciones;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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