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Dynamics of Czech Inflation: The Role of the Trend and the Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Franta
  • Ivan Sutoris

Abstract

We decompose the Czech inflation time series into the trend and short-lived deviations from the trend by means of an unobserved component stochastic volatility model. We then carry out a regression analysis to interpret the two inflation components. The results indicate a fall in the inflation trend since the start of the sample (1998) which coincides with the introduction of the inflation targeting regime and with subsequent changes to the inflation target pursued by the Czech National Bank. Moreover, the regression analysis suggests that inflation expectations play a dominant role in the evolution of the trend. The behavior of the deviations from the trend exhibits features of an open-economy Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Franta & Ivan Sutoris, 2020. "Dynamics of Czech Inflation: The Role of the Trend and the Cycle," Working Papers 2020/1, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2020/1
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2020_01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2018. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 807-823, September.
    3. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    4. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Czech inflation; inflation trend; Phillips curve; UCSV;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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