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Private Experience in Adaptive Learning Models

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  • Felipe Perez

Abstract

Experiments conducted by Marimon and Sunder as reported in Econometrica, 1993, show that people initially do not behave according to the rationally expectations assumption, but eventually learn to choose its low stationary steady state in a hyperinflationary world. We propose a slight generalization of the adaptive learning model in order to explain, beyond the long-run equilibrium observed, the erratic oscillations of the experimental variables. The introduction of heterogeneity in private experience in a simple adaptive model with fixed, deterministic, decision rules is shown to be necessary and sufficient to generate the complex dynamics present in the experiments. (Copyright: Elsevier)
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  • Felipe Perez, 1997. "Private Experience in Adaptive Learning Models," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1403, David K. Levine.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:1403
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    1. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 401-426, October.
    3. Simon, Herbert A, 1986. "Rationality in Psychology and Economics," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 209-224, October.
    4. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    5. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
    6. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-1107, September.
    7. Chen Xiaohong & White Halbert, 2002. "Asymptotic Properties of Some Projection-based Robbins-Monro Procedures in a Hilbert Space," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-55, April.
    8. Anderson, Matthew J. & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-202, November.
    9. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Subjective Equilibrium in Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1231-1240, September.
    10. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-1322, December.
    11. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1998. "Nonparametric Adaptive Learning with Feedback," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 190-222, September.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
    13. Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Merging Economic Forecasts," Discussion Papers 1035, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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    Cited by:

    1. David K Levine & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Introduction: The Dynamic Games Special Issue," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2127, David K. Levine.
    2. David K. Levine & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Introduction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(2), pages 213-215, April.

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