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Immigrants’ Economic Performance and Selective Outmigration: Diverging Predictions from Survey and Administrative Data

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Listed:
  • Charles Bellemare
  • Natalia Kyui
  • Guy Lacroix

Abstract

We show that survey and administrative data-based estimates of a panel data model of earnings, employment, and outmigration yield very different qualitative and quantitative predictions. Survey-based estimates substantially overpredict outmigration, in particular for lower performing immigrants. Consequently, employment and earnings of immigrants who remain in the country are overpredicted relative to model predictions from administrative data. Importantly, estimates from both data sources find opposite self-selection mechanisms into outmigration. Differences hold despite using the same cohort, survey period, and observable characteristics. Differences in predictions are driven by difficulties of properly separating non-random sample attrition from selective outmigration in survey data.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Bellemare & Natalia Kyui & Guy Lacroix, 2021. "Immigrants’ Economic Performance and Selective Outmigration: Diverging Predictions from Survey and Administrative Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-14, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-14
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    Keywords

    Sample Attrition; Outmigration; Measurement Errors; Employment and Earnings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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