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The British Pound on Brexit night: a natural experiment of market efficiency and real-time predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Ke WU

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Spencer WHEATLEY

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Didier SORNETTE

    (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

Exploiting the near-experimental conditions provided by the British Pound market in US Dollars during the Brexit vote of June 23rd, 2016, we unearth a major challenge to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. With a single factor of prior polling information, we show that the Brexit result could have been predicted with high confidence under realistic conditions, knowing only the first 20 of all 382 local voting results. However, the market was severely delayed in re flecting this fundamental information. This collective failure indicates both generic inefficiency and a specific inertia/durable bias in the market similar to herding during bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke WU & Spencer WHEATLEY & Didier SORNETTE, 2017. "The British Pound on Brexit night: a natural experiment of market efficiency and real-time predictability," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1712
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    Cited by:

    1. Júlio Lobão & Sílvia Santos, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction To Brexit Announcements: Evidence From A Natural Experiment," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Sentis & Marc Willinger, 2018. "Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01954920, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    3. Auld, Tom & Linton, Oliver, 2019. "The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 371-389.
    4. Auld, T., 2022. "Betting and financial markets are cointegrated on election night," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2263, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; efficient market hypothesis; response function; one factor model; prediction; market failure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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