IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chf/rpseri/rp1560.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Divergence and the Price of Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Schneider

    (University of Lugano, EPFL, Swiss Finance Institute, and Boston University)

  • Fabio Trojani

    (University of Geneva; Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

Realized divergence gauges the distinct realized moments associated with time-varying uncertainty and is tradeable with divergence swaps engineered from delta-hedged option portfolios. Consistently with established notions of symmetry in arbitrage-free option markets, implied divergence systematically decomposes the price of uncertainty into the contributions of distinct implied moments. Empirically, implied market divergence and market divergence premia vary substantially, in the time series, in the cross-section and in dependence of the investment horizon, making the shortcomings of a model easily visible.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Schneider & Fabio Trojani, 2015. "Divergence and the Price of Uncertainty," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-60, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1560
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2694825
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carol Alexander & Johannes Rauch, 2017. "The Aggregation Property and its Applications to Realised Higher Moments," Papers 1709.08188, arXiv.org.
    2. Lorenzo Camponovo & Olivier Scaillet & Fabio Trojani, 2017. "Comment on: Nonparametric Tail Risk, Stock Returns, and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 377-387.
    3. Cui, Zhenyu & Lars Kirkby, J. & Nguyen, Duy, 2017. "A general framework for discretely sampled realized variance derivatives in stochastic volatility models with jumps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 381-400.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    divergence; risk premia; information theory; dispersion; options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ridima Mittal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fameech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.