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Linear-Rational Term Structure Models

Author

Listed:
  • Damir FILIPOVIC

    (EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Martin LARSSON

    (EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Anders TROLLE

    (EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We introduce the class of linear-rational term structure models, where the state price density is modeled such that bond prices become linear-rational functions of the current state. This class is highly tractable with several distinct advantages: i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, ii) easily accommodates unspanned factors affecting volatility and risk premiums, and iii) admits analytical solutions to swaptions. A parsimonious model specification within the linear-rational class has a very good fit to both interest rate swaps and swaptions since 1997 and captures many features of term structure, volatility, and risk premium dynamics – including when interest rates are close to the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Damir FILIPOVIC & Martin LARSSON & Anders TROLLE, 2014. "Linear-Rational Term Structure Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-15, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1415
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    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2397898
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Pasaogullari, 2015. "Forecasts from Reduced-form Models under the Zero-Lower-Bound Constraint," Working Papers (Old Series) 1512, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Larsson, Martin & Pulido, Sergio, 2017. "Polynomial diffusions on compact quadric sets," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 901-926.
    3. Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
    4. Francesca Biagini & Alessandro Gnoatto & Maximilian Hartel, 2015. "The Long-Term Swap Rate and a General Analysis of Long-Term Interest Rates," Papers 1507.00208, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    5. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea, 2015. "A Shadow-Rate Term Structure Model for the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113159, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Francesca Biagini & Yinglin Zhang, 2016. "Polynomial Diffusion Models for Life Insurance Liabilities," Papers 1602.07910, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Swaps; Swaptions; Unspanned Factors; Zero Lower Bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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