IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chf/rpseri/rp1002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exploring the Nature of 'Trader Intuition'

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine J. BRUGUIER

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Steven R. QUARTZ

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Peter BOSSAERTS

    (California Institute of Technology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. We hypothesized that ToM was involved after contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders. ToM refers to the innate human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH-like persistence in transaction price change that may help with reading markets when there are insiders.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine J. BRUGUIER & Steven R. QUARTZ & Peter BOSSAERTS, 2010. "Exploring the Nature of 'Trader Intuition'," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-02, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1530263
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bossaerts, Peter & Suzuki, Shinsuke & O’Doherty, John P., 2019. "Perception of intentionality in investor attitudes towards financial risks," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 189-197.
    2. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    3. Hamelin, Nicolas & Bonelli, Marco I., 2022. "Traders’ anticipatory feelings and traders’ profitability: An exploratory study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    4. Farago, Adam & Holmén, Martin & Holzmeister, Felix & Kirchler, Michael & Razen, Michael, 2019. "Cognitive Skills and Economic Preferences in the Fund Industry," OSF Preprints 964ba, Center for Open Science.
    5. Michael Seiler & Eric Walden, 2015. "A Neurological Explanation of Strategic Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 215-230, August.
    6. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
    7. Marquardt, Philipp & Noussair, Charles N & Weber, Martin, 2019. "Rational expectations in an experimental asset market with shocks to market trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-140.
    8. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    9. Huber, Christoph & Kirchler, Michael, 2023. "Experiments in finance: A survey of historical trends," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    10. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Tail events, emotions and risk taking," Working Papers halshs-02613344, HAL.
    11. Lambrecht, Marco & Sofianos, Andis & Xu, Yilong, 2020. "Does mining fuel bubbles? An experimental study on cryptocurrency markets," Working Papers 0690, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    12. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Negative Tail Events, Emotions & Risk Taking," Working Papers 2016, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    13. Merl, Robert, 2022. "Literature review of experimental asset markets with insiders," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    14. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2021. "Information aggregation and the cognitive make-up of market participants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. repec:grz:wpsses:2018-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ridima Mittal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fameech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.