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Transiciones Laborales y la Tasa de Desempleo en Chile

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  • Mario Marcel
  • Alberto Naudon

Abstract

In recent years, Chile’s unemployment rate has been low despite poor growth, a situation that has been seen as an anomaly. In this work, we analyze the recent behavior of the unemployment rate in light of the evolution of the labor market in the last decades. In particular, we review the evolution of transition probabilities between labor states and demographic changes that have characterized Chile in this period. Data examination of the last three decades shows that: (a) the unemployment rate shows sharp changes only when the job destruction flows increase sharply. This has been a characteristic of recessionary periods and not of the rather gradual decelerations like has been observed lately; (b) the importance in the labor force of those older than 55 years has increased significantly, while it has declined for those younger than 25, introducing a downward trend in the unemployment rate; and (c) the lower relative weight in the labor force of men between 25 and 54 years opens the door to a more “atypical” behavior of the aggregate unemployment rate. These elements suggest that the dissonance between the evolution of the rates of unemployment and growth is lower than it seems at first sight.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Marcel & Alberto Naudon, 2016. "Transiciones Laborales y la Tasa de Desempleo en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 787, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:787
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_787.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás Chanut & Mario Marcel C. & Carlos A. Medel V., 2019. "Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(3), pages 034-097, December.
    2. Albagli, Elías & Chovar, Alejandra & Luttini, Emiliano & Madeira, Carlos & Naudon, Alberto & Tapia, Matias, 2023. "Labor market flows: Evidence for Chile using microdata from administrative tax records," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(4).
    3. Alberto Naudon D. & Andrés Pérez M., 2018. "Unemployment dynamics in Chile: 1960-2015," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(1), pages 004-033, April.

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