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Jaque Mate a las Proyecciones de Consenso

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  • Pablo Pincheira B.
  • Nicolás Fernández

Abstract

In this article we analyze bias and autocorrelation properties of inflation forecast errors coming from the surveys carried out by Consensus Economics. We consider monthly forecasts for Chile, México and Brazil as well as quarterly forecasts for the US, Canada, Sweden and Japan. Our sample spans the period from March 2002 to June 2008. We consider forecasts at several predictive horizons. Our results indicate the existence of excessive autocorrelation and bias in forecast errors, which is not consistent with optimality under quadratic loss. We also explore whether these findings of excessive autocorrelation and bias enable us to build new and more accurate inflation forecasts. We evaluate these new forecasts in an out-of sample exercise and find that they are more accurate in the cases of Chile, Mexico, Brazil and the US. For Canada, our results are mixed depending on the forecasting horizon. For Sweden and Japan, however, the new forecasts display lower accuracy. It is worth mentioning that in the best case, our new forecasts display a 45% reduction in the Mean Squared Prediction Error.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Pincheira B. & Nicolás Fernández, 2011. "Jaque Mate a las Proyecciones de Consenso," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 630, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:630
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_630.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Pablo Pincheira & Roberto Álvarez, 2012. "Evaluation of Short Run Inflation Forecasts in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 674, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    13. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "A Joint Test of Superior Predictive Ability for Chilean Inflation Forecasts," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(3), pages 04-39, December.
    2. Alfredo Pistelli M., 2012. "Análisis de Sesgos y Eficiencia en Proyecciones de Consensus Forecasts," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 98-104, April.

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