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Rapid Growth Of Monetary Aggregates And Inflation: The International Evidence

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  • Jose De Gregorio

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence for low inflation countries in which M1 has grown persistently for at least one year at rates much higher than the inflation rate. In none of these episodes has there been a similar increase in inflation, as a straightforward application of the simplest version of the quantity theory of money would suggest. This evidence confirms the idea that even in a world of long-run neutrality of money, the use of monetary aggregates to conduct monetary policy could be highly misleading.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose De Gregorio, 2004. "Rapid Growth Of Monetary Aggregates And Inflation: The International Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 256, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:256
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_256.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2014. "Is Inflation always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 14, pages 357-382, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. W A Razzak, 2001. "Money in the era of inflation targeting," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, April.
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    2. Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2006. "¿No importa la cantidad de dinero?: "Inflation Targeting" y la teoría cuantitativa," Borradores de Economia 403, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Gemechu, Kumadebis Tamiru, 2019. "Capital Flight and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Evidence from Ethiopia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 28(02), October.
    4. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer & Kulaksizoglu, Sebnem, 2009. "The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis," MPRA Paper 23780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    6. Gebrekirstos, Kibrom & Gebreegziabher, Zenebe, 2019. "Inflation and Money Growth in Ethiopia: Is there a Threshold Effect?," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 28(02), October.

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