Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio

The purpose of this paper is to determine the sources of Chilean growth in the 1960-96 period. Particularly, we seek to quantify the contribution of increased trade on growth. We also estimate potential output for the Chilean economy in the aforementioned period. The main results are that the Chilean economy has grown at an annual rate of 3,9% between 1960 and 1996. Although the contributions of each factor to growth have changed during these 37 years, on average, 1,6% of growth is explained by capital and 3,9% by labor. The contribution of trade is only significative in the eighties, consisting of approximately 1,5 percentage points for the 1986-96 period. The potential growth rate has been 6,5% during the nineties, increasing from 6,0% in 1990 to 7,0% in 1996. Hence, the economy has evolved around the productive frontier. Medium term projections show that with the actual levels of domestic savings, the continuity of growth at 7,0% annual rates will require superior levels of foreign saving than what is actually available, or alternatively, policies that promote saving or factor productivity growth.