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Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework

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  • Mario Larch
  • Yoto V. Yotov

Abstract

We quantify the relationships between deep trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI). To this end, we focus on the effects of Deep Trade Agreements (DTAs), and we rely on a structural framework that simultaneously enables us to (i) estimate the direct impact of DTAs on FDI, (ii) translate the partial DTA estimates into general equilibrium effects on FDI; and (iii) obtain partial DTA effects on trade and quantify the impact of DTAs on FDI through trade. We obtain sizable, positive, and statistically significant estimates of the effects of DTAs on both trade and FDI. A counterfactual analysis suggests that, in combination through direct and indirect channels, DTAs have contributed to a large but very asymmetric increase in inward vs. outward FDI.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 9985, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9985
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
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    7. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
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    12. Henk L. M. Kox & Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa, 2020. "How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ridwan Ah Sheikh & Sunil Kanwar, 2024. "Do Deep Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions Actually Increase International Trade?," Working papers 344, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Jordi Paniagua, 2024. "Do Deep Trade Agreements’ Provisions Actually Increase – or Decrease – Trade and/or FDI?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11526, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment (FDI); trade liberalization; deep trade agreements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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