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Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?

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  • Klaus Adam
  • George W. Evans
  • Seppo Honkapoja

Abstract

Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high-inflation steady state. The hyperinflationary paths are stable under learning if agents can utilize contemporaneous data. However, in an economy populated by a mixture of agents, some of whom only have access to lagged data, stable inflationary paths emerge only if the proportion of agents with access to contemporaneous data is sufficiently high.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapoja, 2003. "Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?," CESifo Working Paper Series 936, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_936
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 887-907.
    4. Van Zandt, Timothy & Lettau, Martin, 2003. "Robustness Of Adaptive Expectations As An Equilibrium Selection Device," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 89-118, February.
    5. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    3. Ellison, Martin & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Saddlepath learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1500-1519, July.
    4. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Central bank transparency under model uncertainty," Staff Reports 199, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    indeterminacy; inflation; stability of equilibria; seigniorage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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