IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_9213.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Farsighted Stability of Global Tade Policy Arrangements

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Berens
  • Lasha Chochua
  • Gerald Willmann

Abstract

We study the stability of trade policy arrangements under two regulatory scenarios, with/without PTAs. Unlike previous papers, we consider an extensive set of trade policy constellations and allow for unlimited farsightedness of negotiating parties. We find global free trade (GFT) to be uniquely stable under symmetry, with/without PTAs. When two countries are smaller (larger) than the third, availability of PTAs decreases (increases) the stability of GFT. Away from symmetry, GFT is not attainable, and without PTAs the non-cooperative MFN regime is the only stable outcome. The effect of (dis-)allowing PTAs thus depends on the size asymmetry of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Berens & Lasha Chochua & Gerald Willmann, 2021. "The Farsighted Stability of Global Tade Policy Arrangements," CESifo Working Paper Series 9213, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9213.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    2. Zhang, Jin & Cui, Zhiwei & Zu, Lei, 2014. "The evolution of free trade networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-86.
    3. Furusawa, Taiji & Konishi, Hideo, 2007. "Free trade networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 310-335, July.
    4. James Lake, 2017. "Free Trade Agreements As Dynamic Farsighted Networks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 31-50, January.
    5. Debraj Ray & Rajiv Vohra, 2015. "The Farsighted Stable Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 977-1011, May.
    6. Chwe Michael Suk-Young, 1994. "Farsighted Coalitional Stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 299-325, August.
    7. Jackson, Matthew O. & Wolinsky, Asher, 1996. "A Strategic Model of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 44-74, October.
    8. Facchini, Giovanni & Silva, Peri & Willmann, Gerald, 2013. "The customs union issue: Why do we observe so few of them?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 136-147.
    9. Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2009. "Farsightedly stable networks," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 526-541, November.
    10. Paul Missios & Kamal Saggi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2018. "External trade diversion, exclusion incentives and the nature of preferential trade agreements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kamal Saggi (ed.), Economic Analysis of the Rules and Regulations of the World Trade Organization, chapter 10, pages 223-237, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Jin Zhang & Licun Xue & Lei Zu, 2013. "Farsighted free trade networks," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 42(2), pages 375-398, May.
    12. Maggi, Giovanni, 2014. "International Trade Agreements," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 317-390, Elsevier.
    13. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "The Design of Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 22087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kamal Saggi & Alan Woodland & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2018. "On the Relationship between Preferential and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Case of Customs Unions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kamal Saggi (ed.), Economic Analysis of the Rules and Regulations of the World Trade Organization, chapter 9, pages 186-222, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Baldwin,Richard & Haapararanta,Pertti & Kiander,Jaakko (ed.), 1995. "Expanding Membership of the European Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521481342, January.
    16. Herings, P.J.J. & Mauleon, A. & Vannetelbosch, V., 2014. "Stability of networks under level-k farsightedness," Research Memorandum 030, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    17. John C. Harsanyi, 1974. "An Equilibrium-Point Interpretation of Stable Sets and a Proposed Alternative Definition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(11), pages 1472-1495, July.
    18. Sanjeev Goyal & Sumit Joshi, 2006. "Bilateralism And Free Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 749-778, August.
    19. Keck, Alexander & Lendle, Andreas, 2012. "New evidence on preference utilization," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-12, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    20. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 1999. "Regionalism and Multilateral Tariff Co-operation," International Economic Association Series, in: John Piggott & Alan Woodland (ed.), International Trade Policy and the Pacific Rim, chapter 7, pages 157-190, Palgrave Macmillan.
    21. Bernheim, B. Douglas & Peleg, Bezalel & Whinston, Michael D., 1987. "Coalition-Proof Nash Equilibria I. Concepts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-12, June.
    22. Grossman, Gene, 2016. "The Purpose of Trade Agreements," CEPR Discussion Papers 11151, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berens, Stefan & Chochua, Lasha & Willmann, Gerald, 2021. "The farsighted stability of global trade policy arrangements," Kiel Working Papers 2193, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Lake, James & Nken, Moïse & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2020. "Tariff bindings and the dynamic formation of Preferential Trade Agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. P. Jean-Jacques Herings & Ana Mauleon & Vincent Vannetelbosch, 2019. "Stability of networks under horizon-K farsightedness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 177-201, July.
    4. James Lake, 2019. "Dynamic formation of preferential trade agreements: The role of flexibility," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 132-177, February.
    5. James Lake, 2017. "Free Trade Agreements As Dynamic Farsighted Networks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 31-50, January.
    6. Nuno Limão, 2016. "Preferential Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 22138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Saggi, Kamal & Wong, Woan Foong & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2019. "Should the WTO require free trade agreements to eliminate internal tariffs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 316-330.
    8. Eric Conglin Chi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2024. "Dynamic preferential trade agreement formation and the role of political economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 748-781, April.
    9. Moïse Nken & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2022. "Implications of multilateral tariff bindings on the extent of preferential trade agreement formation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(1), pages 301-347, February.
    10. Saggi, Kamal & Wong, Woan Foong & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2017. "Preferential Trade Agreements and Rules of the Multilateral Trading System," MPRA Paper 76330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kamal Saggi & Woan Foong Wong & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2022. "The role of non‐discrimination in a world of discriminatory preferential trade agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 174-212, February.
    12. HERINGS, P. Jean-Jacques & MAULEON, Ana & VANNETELBOSCH, Vincent, 2014. "Stability of networks under level-K farsightedness," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014032, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    13. Stoyanov, Andrey & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2015. "Preferential versus multilateral trade liberalization and the role of political economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 140-164.
    14. Ornelas, Emanuel & Tovar, Patricia, 2022. "Intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins in trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Kamal Saggi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2018. "Bilateralism, multilateralism, and the quest for global free trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kamal Saggi (ed.), Economic Analysis of the Rules and Regulations of the World Trade Organization, chapter 7, pages 156-167, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Nken, Moïse & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2017. "Implications of multilateral tariff bindings on the formation of preferential trade agreements and quest for global free trade," MPRA Paper 83209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kimya, Mert, 2020. "Equilibrium coalitional behavior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(2), May.
    18. May, D. & McCorriston, S., 2018. "The role of Centrality in Preventing Free Trade of Processed Agricultural Goods under Imperfect Competition," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277262, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Jin Zhang & Licun Xue & Lei Zu, 2013. "Farsighted free trade networks," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 42(2), pages 375-398, May.
    20. Hiroshi Daisaka & Taiji Furusawa, 2014. "Dynamic Free Trade Networks: Some Numerical Results," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 469-487, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade policy arrangements; stability; unlimited farsightedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.