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The Macroeconomic Loss Function: A Critical Note

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  • Thomas Mayer

Abstract

The standard loss function counts both positive and negative deviations from the output and inflation targets as losses. But if the sample period is long enough, then output growth in excess of the target, and often also inflation rates that are below target, should be counted as gains instead of losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Mayer, 2002. "The Macroeconomic Loss Function: A Critical Note," CESifo Working Paper Series 771, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_771
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horowitz, Ann R., 1987. "Loss functions and public policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 489-504.
    2. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. "Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-785, October.
    3. Waud, Roger N, 1976. "Asymmetric Policymaker Utility Functions and Optimal Policy Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 53-66, January.
    4. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 2000. "Making Monetary Policy: Objectives and Rules," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 43-59, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan K. Cohen & Fabrizio Ferretti & Bryan McIntosh, 2014. "Decomposing the misery index: A dynamic approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Describing The Fed’S Conduct With Taylor Rules: Is Interest Rate Smoothing Important?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 57-77, August.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2007. "Taylor Rules And Interest Rate Smoothing In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    loss functions; policy evaluation;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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