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Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the 1988 Canadian General Election

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  • James A. Brander

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of public opinion polls on the Toronto Stock Exchange during the campaign period of the 1988 Canadian general election. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the Toronto Stock Exchange and, secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement? The author finds that the Toronto Stock Exchange was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of Toronto Stock Exchange subindices, while not inconsistent with a Free Trade Agreement based interpretation, does not offer much additional supporting evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Brander, 1991. "Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the 1988 Canadian General Election," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 827-843, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:24:y:1991:i:4:p:827-43
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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    2. Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Jean‐Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2006. "Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 621-642, May.
    3. John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
    4. Breinlich, Holger, 2008. "Trade liberalization and industrial restructuring through mergers and acquisitions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 254-266, December.
    5. Marc J. Melitz & Daniel Trefler, 2012. "Gains from Trade When Firms Matter," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 91-118, Spring.
    6. J. Mutti & R. Sampson & B. Yeung, 2000. "The effects of the Uruguay round: empirical evidence from U.S. industry," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 59-69, January.
    7. Xiuping Hua & Ying Jiang & Qian Sun & Xinyi Xing, 2019. "Do antidumping measures affect Chinese export-related firms?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 871-900, April.
    8. Tamir Levy & Joseph Yagil, 2015. "The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 66-74, December.
    9. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Jen Baggs & James A Brander, 2006. "Trade liberalization, profitability, and financial leverage," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(2), pages 196-211, March.
    11. Yang, Tina & Zhao, Shan, 2014. "CEO duality and firm performance: Evidence from an exogenous shock to the competitive environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-552.
    12. Rasyad A. Parinduri & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2013. "Trade liberalization, free trade agreements, and the value of firms: Stock market evidence from Singapore," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 924-941, September.
    13. Breinlich, Holger, 2014. "Heterogeneous firm-level responses to trade liberalization: A test using stock price reactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 270-285.
    14. Basyah, Mohammad & Hartigan, James C., 2007. "Analyst earnings forecast revisions and the persistence of antidumping relief," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-399.
    15. Auld, T., 2022. "Betting and financial markets are cointegrated on election night," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2263, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Auld, T., 2022. "Political markets as equity price factors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2264, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Rehbein, Kathleen & Starks, Laura T., 1995. "Changes in U.S. trade policies: the wealth effects on Japanese steel firms," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 309-327, September.
    18. Boardman, Anthony & Vertinsky, Ilan & Whistler, Diana, 1997. "Using information diffusion models to estimate the impacts of regulatory events on publicly traded firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 283-300, January.
    19. Tirtiroglu, Dogan & Bhabra, Harjeet S. & Lel, Ugur, 2004. "Political uncertainty and asset valuation: Evidence from business relocations in Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2237-2258, September.

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