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Democratic Tipping Points

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  • Antonio Ciccone

Abstract

I examine whether transitory events can tip the scales against authoritarian regimes and lead to persistent democratization. I think of situations where this is a possibility as democratic tipping points. The transitory events I focus on are rainfall shocks in the most agricultural countries in the world. I show that while these shocks only affect agricultural output contemporaneously, they have persistent effects on political institutions. Authoritarian regimes experiencing negative rainfall shocks are more likely to be democratic three, five, and ten years later.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Ciccone, 2018. "Democratic Tipping Points," CESifo Working Paper Series 6945, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6945
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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Jilin & Sim, Nicholas & Yan, Wenshou & Li, Yanyun, 2020. "Trade uncertainty, income, and democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 21-31.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transitory shocks; persistent democratization;

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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