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R&D-Driven Medical Progress, Health Care Costs, and the Future of Human Longevity

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  • Sebastian Böhm
  • Volker Grossmann
  • Holger Strulik

Abstract

In this paper we set up an overlapping generations model of gerontological founded human aging that takes the interaction between R&D-driven medical progress and access to health care into account. We use the model to explore potential futures of human health and longevity. For the baseline policy scenario of health care access, the calibrated model predicts substantial future increases in health and life expectancy, associated with rising shares of health expenditure in GDP. Freezing the expenditure share at the 2020 level by rationing access to health care severely reduces potential gains in health, longevity and welfare. These losses are greatest in the long run due to reduced incentives for medical R&D. For example, rationing is predicted to reduce potential gains of life-expectancy at age 65 by about 4 years in the year 2050. Generally, and perhaps surprisingly, young individuals (i.e. those who save the most health care contributions through rationing) are predicted to suffer the greatest losses in terms of life expectancy and welfare.

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  • Sebastian Böhm & Volker Grossmann & Holger Strulik, 2018. "R&D-Driven Medical Progress, Health Care Costs, and the Future of Human Longevity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6897, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6897
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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Strulik & Volker Grossmann, 2022. "Life Cycle Economics with Infectious and Chronic Diseases," CESifo Working Paper Series 10141, CESifo.
    2. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael, 2018. "Health insurance, endogenous medical progress, and health expenditure growth," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 01/2018, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    3. Ivan Frankovic & Michael Kuhn & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2020. "On the Anatomy of Medical Progress Within an Overlapping Generations Economy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 215-257, June.
    4. Zhiheng Chen & Yuting Ma & Junyi Hua & Yuanhong Wang & Hongpeng Guo, 2021. "Impacts from Economic Development and Environmental Factors on Life Expectancy: A Comparative Study Based on Data from Both Developed and Developing Countries from 2004 to 2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Volker Grossmann & Johannes Schünemann & Holger Strulik, 2024. "Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Ageing," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2835-2875.
    6. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael, 2023. "Health insurance, endogenous medical progress, health expenditure growth, and welfare," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Adnan M. S. Fakir & Tushar Bharati, 2022. "Healthy, nudged, and wise: Experimental evidence on the role of information salience in reducing tobacco intake," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1129-1166, June.
    8. Volker Grossmann & Johannes Schünemann & Holger Strulik, 2024. "Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Ageing," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2835-2875.
    9. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Wang, Chen, 2021. "Macro-level efficiency of health expenditure: Estimates for 15 major economies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    11. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2020. "Medical innovation and its diffusion: Implications for economic performance and welfare," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Katharina E. Blankart & Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The Effects of Off-label Drug Use on Disability and Medical Expenditure," NBER Working Papers 30440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Volker Grossmann, 2021. "Medical Innovations and Ageing: A Health Economics Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 9387, CESifo.
    14. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "Medical progress and life cycle choices," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    15. Strulik, Holger & Grossmann, Volker, 2024. "The economics of aging with infectious and chronic diseases," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael, 2019. "Access to health care, medical progress and the emergence of the longevity gap: A general equilibrium analysis," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    longevity; medical R&D; morbidity; health care; rationing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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