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Optimal demand for medical and long-term care

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  • Schünemann, Johannes
  • Strulik, Holger
  • Trimborn, Timo

Abstract

For the population over 65, long-term care (LTC) expenditure constitutes a considerable share in health care expenditures. In this paper, we decompose health care into medical care, intended to improve one’s state of health, and personal care required for daily routine. Personal care can be either carried out autonomously or by a third party. In the course of aging, autonomous personal care is gradually substituted by LTC. We set up a life-cycle model in which individuals are subject to physiological aging, calibrate it with data from gerontology, and analyze the interplay between medical care and LTC. In comparative dynamic analyses, our theory-based approach allows us to causally investigate the impact of better health and rising life expectancy, triggered by higher income and better medical technology, on the expected expenditures for LTC in the future. We predict that a one percentage increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.75-percentage increase in expected LTC expenditure. In terms of present value at age 20, this elasticity declines to about 1.0 percent. Even when considering different magnitudes and compositions of shocks in medical technology and income, we find that these elasticities remain remarkably stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2022. "Optimal demand for medical and long-term care," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:23:y:2022:i:c:s2212828x22000329
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100400
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo GARCIA SANCHEZ & Luca MARCHIORI & Olivier PIERRARD, 2024. "On Optimal Subsidies for Prevention and Long-Term Care," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2024008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2023. "Anticipation of deteriorating health and information avoidance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard, 2024. "Healthy aging and capital accumulation," BCL working papers 189, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    4. Pablo Garcia-Sanchez & Olivier Pierrard, 2023. "Uncertain lifetime, health investment and welfare," BCL working papers 178, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "Medical progress and life cycle choices," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    6. Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard, 2023. "Long-term care expenditures and investment decisions under uncertainty," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023006, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health; Long-term care; Health behavior; Life expectancy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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