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Resilience, Supply Chains and the Great Recession

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  • Steven Brakman
  • Charles van Marrewijk
  • Charles van Marrewijk

Abstract

We analyse the link between supply chains and the extent to which the Great Recession has affected national economies. Our analysis is in two steps, namely first for value added measures of supply chains and then for the Grubel-Lloyd index using gross-export data. Regarding value added measures we find, in general, no effect. Only if we separate out Europe do we find that the trough in Europe occurs about 0.17 years later and the recovery (for the countries that have recovered) about 1.55 years later. Moreover, the duration of the decline in Europe is about 4 months longer and of the recovery about 17 months longer. We explain this link and Europe’s special role using a detailed Grubel-Lloyd index applied to gross-exports as an alternative supply chain measure, which significantly affects the impact of the Great Recession regarding the timing and duration of the recovery (later and longer).

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Brakman & Charles van Marrewijk & Charles van Marrewijk, 2017. "Resilience, Supply Chains and the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 6505, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2015. "Regional resilience across Europe: on urbanisation and the initial impact of the Great Recession," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 225-240.
    2. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
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    4. Carlo Altomonte & Filippo Di Mauro & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Armando Rungi & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1131, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Peter H. Egger & Joseph Francois & Douglas R. Nelson, 2017. "The Role of Goods-Trade Networks for Services-Trade Volume," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 532-543, March.
    6. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
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    8. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2015. "On the notion of regional economic resilience: conceptualization and explanation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 1-42.
    9. Janet Ceglowski, 2017. "Assessing Export Competitiveness through the Lens of Value Added," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 275-296, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    resilience; Great Recession; supply chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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