IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5795.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining the EUA-CER Spread

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Gronwald
  • Beat Hintermann

Abstract

Because of a link between the EU ETS and the Kyoto Flexible Mechanisms, the emission certificates traded on these markets are in principle interchangeable assets; despite of this, a persistent price difference exists. We explain this price spread using a theoretical model that combines three features: A binding limit for the use of Kyoto offsets within the EU ETS; a disconnect between the price of offsets and their marginal cost of production due to institutional reasons; and uncertainty about future supply and demand of offsets. Our model expresses the offset price as an average of the EUA price and an offset’s outside value, weighted by the probability of a binding import limit. Using a detailed dataset on expected offset supply and demand, we provide empirical support for our theory of offset price formation. In addition, we find evidence for informational frictions governing the use of offsets within the EU ETS.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald & Beat Hintermann, 2016. "Explaining the EUA-CER Spread," CESifo Working Paper Series 5795, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5795.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nazifi, Fatemeh, 2013. "Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 434-445.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11687 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    4. Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
    5. Kanamura, Takashi, 2016. "Role of carbon swap trading and energy prices in price correlations and volatilities between carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-212.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7938 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gronwald, Marc & Hintermann, Beat (ed.), 2015. "Emissions Trading as a Policy Instrument: Evaluation and Prospects," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262029286, April.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    10. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "EUAs and CERs: Interactions in a Markov regime-switching environment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 86-101.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Raphael Trotignon, 2012. "Combining cap-and-trade with offsets: lessons from the EU-ETS," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 273-287, May.
    13. Rahman, Shaikh M. & Kirkman, Grant A., 2015. "Costs of certified emission reductions under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 129-141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simon Quemin & Christian Perthuis, 2019. "Transitional Restricted Linkage Between Emissions Trading Schemes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 1-32, September.
    2. M. Angeles Carnero & Jose Olmo & Lorenzo Pascual, 2018. "Modelling the Dynamics of Fuel and EU Allowance Prices during Phase 3 of the EU ETS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Gavin A. Whitaker & Ricardo Silva & Daniel Edwards & Ioannis Kosmidis, 2021. "A Bayesian approach for determining player abilities in football," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 174-201, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beat Hintermann & Marc Gronwald, 2019. "Linking with Uncertainty: The Relationship Between EU ETS Pollution Permits and Kyoto Offsets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 761-784, October.
    2. Kapoor, Nimisha & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Long-term association between European and Indian markets on carbon credit price," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 656-662.
    3. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2018. "Flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with European allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 504-518.
    4. Naegele, Helene, 2018. "Offset Credits in the EU ETS: A Quantile Estimation of Firm-Level Transaction Costs," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 70(1), pages 77-106.
    5. Helene Naegele, 2018. "Offset Credits in the EU ETS: A Quantile Estimation of Firm-Level Transaction Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(1), pages 77-106, May.
    6. Eric Ghysels & J. Isaac Miller, 2014. "On the Size Distortion from Linearly Interpolating Low-frequency Series for Cointegration Tests," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, volume 14, pages 93-122, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Panagiotis Petris & George Dotsis & Panayotis Alexakis, 2022. "Bubble tests in the London housing market: A borough level analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1044-1063, January.
    9. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    10. Alain Hecq & Elisa Voisin, 2023. "Predicting Crashes in Oil Prices During The Covid-19 Pandemic with Mixed Causal-Noncausal Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 209-233, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. David E. Allen & Chialin Chang & Michael McAleer & Abhay K Singh, 2018. "A cointegration analysis of agricultural, energy and bio-fuel spot, and futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 804-823, February.
    12. Djamel KIRAT & Claire GAVARD, 2020. "Short-term impacts of carbon offsetting on emissions trading schemes: empirical insights from the EU experience," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2821, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    13. Man Fu & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2011. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, December.
    14. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2014. "Dynamics of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 02/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong, 2020. "Robust inference for spurious regressions and cointegrations involving processes moderately deviated from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 52-65.
    16. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Akcora, Begum & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2023. "Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Consumption, House Prices, and Stock Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-level Data," Journal of Real Estate Literature, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 83-99, January.
    19. Simon Quemin & Christian Perthuis, 2019. "Transitional Restricted Linkage Between Emissions Trading Schemes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 1-32, September.
    20. Podhorsky, Andrea, 2024. "Bursting the bitcoin bubble: Do market prices reflect fundamental bitcoin value?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU ETS; clean development mechanism; offset demand; EUA-CER spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.