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Carbon Emissions Scenarios in Europe Based on an Endogenous Growth Model

Author

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  • Anna Sophia Ciesielski
  • Richard S. J. Tol

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions are a major force driving climate change. We construct scenarios of CO2 emissions from fossil energy until 2100 in Europe. Major innovations are first that economic growth is based on an endogenous economic growth model and second that we calibrate our model to historical data on population and GDP since 1850. We provide statistically valid confidence intervals of economic growth to indicate the accuracy of our forecasts and we show that aggregate forecasts vary with their spatial resolution. We find stronger income divergence between Western- and Eastern European countries than is projected in the ‘Middle of the Road’ scenario of the so-called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2), a framework which was adopted together with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5).

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Sophia Ciesielski & Richard S. J. Tol, 2014. "Carbon Emissions Scenarios in Europe Based on an Endogenous Growth Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 4971, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4971
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-859, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; endogenous growth; scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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