IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_4551.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Hailong Jin
  • E. Kwan Choi

Abstract

China’s currency policy has been criticized for its apparent pursuit of mercantile advantage by artificially stimulating exports, which potentially have adverse effects on other economies. While China’s currency policy may have positive output effects, there may be additional profits or losses. This paper computes the annual and cumulative accounting profits from currency intervention since 1994 when China began its currency intervention. It is shown that profits initially were positive but China since 2007 has lost a massive amount from the currency market.

Suggested Citation

  • Hailong Jin & E. Kwan Choi, 2013. "China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994-2011," CESifo Working Paper Series 4551, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4551.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:1:p:73-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fender, John & Rankin, Neil, 2011. "A further contribution towards explaining why disinflation through currency pegging may cause a boom," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 516-536, April.
    3. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March.
    4. Dilip K. Ghosh & Augustine C. Arize, 2003. "Profit Possibilities in Currency Markets: Arbitrage, Hedging, and Speculation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 473-496, August.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Chapters, in: Volbert Alexander & Hans-Helmut Kotz (ed.), Global Divergence in Trade, Money and Policy, chapter 3, pages 45-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Guonan Ma & Yan Xiandong & Liu Xi, 2013. "China’s evolving reserve requirements," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 117-137, May.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignment - The Case of the Chinese Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3797, CESifo.
    8. Ghosh, Dilip K, 1997. "Profit Multiplier in Covered Currency Trading with Leverage," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 391-409, May.
    9. Andrew Filardo & James Yetman, 2012. "The expansion of central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: what are the risks?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    10. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
    11. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December.
    12. Taylor, Dean, 1982. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, or, Bet against the Central Bank," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(2), pages 356-368, April.
    13. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "China's financial conundrum and global imbalances," BIS Working Papers 277, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
    15. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2018. "Unemployment and optimal exchange rate in an open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-90.
    2. Jin, Hailong & Choi, Yoonho & Kwan Choi, E., 2016. "Unemployment and optimal currency intervention in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-261.
    3. Alexander Erler & Stefan Hohberger, 2016. "Editor's Choice TARGET2: How Costly is Buying Time?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(3), pages 491-505.
    4. Hongxing Yao & Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahaman, 2018. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and the RMB-Dollar Rates: A Nonlinear Modeling of the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 150-160, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hailong Jin & E. Kwan Choi, 2014. "China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994–2011," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 170-183, May.
    2. Choi, E. Kwan & Jin, Hailong, 2014. "Currency intervention and consumer welfare in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 47-56.
    3. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 1-10.
    4. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Sjoo, Boo & Sweeney, Richard J., 2000. "Time-varying foreign-exchange risk and central bank intervention: estimating profits from intervention and speculation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 275-286, December.
    6. Jin, Hailong & Choi, E. Kwan, 2013. "Profits and losses from currency intervention," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 14-20.
    7. Simatele, Munacinga & Sjö, Bo & Sweeny, Richard, 2016. "Do Developing Countries Lose Money on Central Bank Intervention? The Case of Zambia in Copper-Market Boom and Bust," LiU Working Papers in Economics 2, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    8. Rizvi, S.K.A. & Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Bordes, Christian, 2017. "Fear of floating in Asia and the credibility of true floaters?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 149-160.
    9. Fischer, Andreas M., 2003. "Measurement error and the profitability of interventions: a closer look at SNB transactions data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 137-142, October.
    10. Jin, Hailong, 2013. "Essays on currency intervention, with particular reference to Chinese economy," ISU General Staff Papers 201301010800004079, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Sweeney, R. J., 2000. "Does the Fed beat the foreign-exchange market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 665-694, May.
    12. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Aaron Jackson & William Miles, 2008. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Disinflation in Emerging Markets: How Large Is the Effect?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(3), pages 538-557, October.
    14. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2006. "External currency pricing and the East Asian crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 37-63, June.
    15. Dino Martellato, 2010. "Skirmishing Currencies," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 17(4), pages 645-661, December.
    16. Sebastián Fanelli & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions [The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2857-2885.
    17. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling Us Something about Where the Renminbi–US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1581-1598, December.
    18. repec:got:cegedp:112 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2013. "Reassessing the link between the Japanese yen and emerging Asian currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-326.
    20. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2012. "Limits of Monetary Policy Autonomy by East Asian Debtor Central Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3742, CESifo.
    21. Anuli Regina Ogbuagu & Dennis Brown Ewubare, 2015. "Financial Integration, Exchange Rate Stability and Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria: ¡°A Structural Impact¡±," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(3), pages 36-54, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency intervention; cumulative accounting profits;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.