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The Impact of Uncertainty on the European Energy Market: A Scenario Aggregation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kjell Arne Brekke
  • Rolf Golombek
  • Michal Kaut
  • Sverre A.C. Kittelsen
  • Stein W. Wallace

Abstract

We present a simple approach to transform a deterministic numerical model, where several agents simultaneously make decisions, into a stochastic model. This approach, which builds on scenario aggregation, a numerical method developed to solve decision problems under uncertainty, is used to build a large stochastic numerical equilibrium model of the Western European energy markets. We use the stochastic model to analyze the impact of economic and political uncertainty on the Western European energy markets. We demonstrate that the equilibria under uncertainty differ significantly from the deterministic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kjell Arne Brekke & Rolf Golombek & Michal Kaut & Sverre A.C. Kittelsen & Stein W. Wallace, 2013. "The Impact of Uncertainty on the European Energy Market: A Scenario Aggregation Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 4500, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4500
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4500.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Rolf Golombek & Mads Greaker & Sverre A.C. Kittelsen & Ole Røgeberg & Finn Roar Aune, 2011. "Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies in the European Power Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 209-238.
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    5. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
    6. O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Labor Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    7. Murphy, Kevin J., 1999. "Executive compensation," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 38, pages 2485-2563, Elsevier.
    8. K. J. Arrow, 1964. "The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(2), pages 91-96.
    9. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek, 2018. "Carbon Prices are Redundant in the 2030 EU Climate and Energy Policy Package," CESifo Working Paper Series 7364, CESifo.
    2. Brekke, Kjell Arne & Golombek, Rolf & Kaut, Michal & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Wallace, Stein W., 2017. "Stochastic energy market equilibrium modeling with multiple agents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 984-990.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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