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Size and Development of Tax Evasion in 38 OECD Countries: What do we (not) know?

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  • Andreas Bühn
  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

For the first time we develop a time series of tax evasion (in % of official GDP) for 38 OECD countries over the period 1999 to 2010 based on MIMIC model estimations of the shadow economy. Considering indirect taxation and self-employment as the driving forces of tax evasion, we observe a declining trend of tax evasion between 1999 and 2010 for all countries. The average size of tax evasion across all 38 countries over the period 1999 to 2010 is 3.2% of official GDP. The country with the highest average value is Mexico with 6.8%, followed by Turkey with 6.7%; at the lower end we find the United States and Luxembourg with 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Bühn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Size and Development of Tax Evasion in 38 OECD Countries: What do we (not) know?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4004, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:109-149 is not listed on IDEAS
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    3. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    4. Benno Torgler, 2003. "Tax Morale and Institutions," CREMA Working Paper Series 2003-09, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    5. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    6. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    7. Lars P. Feld & Benno Torgler, 2007. "Tax Morale after the Reunification of Germany: Results from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-03, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    8. Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2012. "Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?," IZA Discussion Papers 6891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    10. Thomas, Jim, 1999. "Quantifying the Black Economy: 'Measurement without Theory' Yet Again?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 381-389, June.
    11. Friedrich Schneider (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on the Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13432.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Evasione e debito
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2014-08-15 21:55:00
    2. QED 44: Varoufake e gli 00740
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2015-03-07 06:49:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Bernasconi & Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2020. "Dynamic Tax Evasion with Habit Formation in Consumption," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(3), pages 966-992, July.
    2. David S. Reher, 2021. "The Aftermath of the Demographic Transition in the Developed World: Interpreting Enduring Disparities in Reproductive Behavior," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 475-503, June.
    3. Pietro Battiston & Denvil Duncan & Simona Gamba & Alessandro Santoro, 2020. "Audit Publicity and Tax Compliance: A Natural Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 81-108, January.
    4. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    5. Felix Schmutz, 2016. "Measuring the Invisible: An Overview of and Outlook for Tax Non-Compliance Estimates and Measurement Methods for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(II), pages 125-177, June.
    6. Di Gioacchino, Debora & Sabani, Laura & Tedeschi, Simone, 2019. "Individual preferences for public education spending: Does personal income matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 211-228.
    7. Hailin Chen & Friedrich Schneider & Qunli Sun, 2018. "Size, Determinants, and Consequences of Corruption in China's Provinces: The MIMIC Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7175, CESifo.
    8. Barbara Annicchiarico & Claudio Cesaroni, 2018. "Tax reforms and the underground economy: a simulation-based analysis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 458-518, April.
    9. Daniel Němec & Zuzana Machová & Igor Kotlán & Eva Kotlánová & Christiana Kliková, 2022. "Corruption in Public Administration as a Brake on Transition to Industry 4.0," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    10. Gamannossi degl’Innocenti, Duccio & Levaggi, Rosella & Menoncin, Francesco, 2022. "Tax avoidance and evasion in a dynamic setting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 443-456.
    11. Gamannossi degl’Innocenti, Duccio & Rablen, Matthew D., 2020. "Tax evasion on a social network," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 79-91.
    12. Ioannis Gasteratos & Michael Karamalis & Andreas Koutoupis, 2016. "Shadow Economy Worsens Income distribution," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 80-92.
    13. Schaltegger, Christoph A. & Weder, Martin, 2014. "Austerity, inequality and politics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-22.
    14. Elena Smirnova & Igor Okhrimenko & Aleksandra Zakharova, 2024. "Review of Best Practices in Self-Employment Taxation," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 299-314, March.
    15. Ek, Andreas, 2021. "Cross-country differences in preferences for leisure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Felix Schmutz, 2016. "Measuring the Invisible: An Overview of and Outlook for Tax Non-Compliance Estimates and Measurement Methods for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 152(2), pages 125-177, April.
    17. Coppier, Raffaella & Michetti, Elisabetta & Scaccia, Luisa, 2024. "Dimensional traps in evasion models and their effects on industrial structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. César Pérez López & María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Sonia de Lucas Santos, 2023. "Modelización de los factores que afectan al fraude fiscal con técnicas de minería de datos: aplicación al Impuesto de la Renta en España," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 246(3), pages 137-164, September.
    19. Tânia Menezes Montenegro, 2021. "Tax Evasion, Corporate Social Responsibility and National Governance: A Country-Level Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    20. Kim, Jiwoon, 2022. "Factors for the Decline of the Self-employed in Korea: A Search and Matching Model Approach," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 44(2), pages 45-71.
    21. Dzhumashev, Ratbek & Levaggi, Rosella & Menoncin, Francesco, 2023. "Optimal tax enforcement with productive public inputs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    22. Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Size and Progression of the Shadow Economies of Turkey and Other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2013; Some New Facts," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 83-116, May.
    23. Tassos Giannitsis & Stavros Zografakis, 2018. "Crisis management in Greece," IMK Studies 58-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    24. Dennis Nchor, 2021. "Shadow economies and tax evasion: The case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 43(1), pages 21-37, March.
    25. Indupurnahayu, 2023. "Determinants of financial performance on tax avoidance moderated by transfer pricing (empirical study on energy companies listed on IDX 2018 - 2022)," Technium Business and Management, Technium Science, vol. 5(1), pages 108-123.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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