IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_3794.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

"Interest Rate Trap", or: Why Does the Central Bank Keep the Policy Rate too Low for too Long Time?

Author

Listed:
  • Jin Cao
  • Gerhard Illing

Abstract

This paper is concerned with carbon price volatility and the underlying causes of large price movements in the European emissions trading market. Based on the application of a combined jump-GARCH model the behavior of EUA prices is characterized. The jump-GARCH model explains the unsteady carbon price movement well and, moreover, shows that between 40 and 60 percent of the carbon price variance are triggered by jumps. Information regarding EUA supply and news from international carbon markets are identified as important drivers of these price spikes. These results can lead regulators the way if smoother carbon prices are desired.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Cao & Gerhard Illing, 2012. ""Interest Rate Trap", or: Why Does the Central Bank Keep the Policy Rate too Low for too Long Time?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3794, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3794
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3794.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2012. "Illiquid Banks, Financial Stability, and Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(3), pages 552-591.
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Alberto Giovannini, 2010. "Central Banks and the Financial System," NBER Working Papers 16228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin Cao & Loran Chollete, 2013. "Monetary policy and financial stability in the long run," Working Paper 2013/21, Norges Bank.
    2. Jin Cao & Lorán Chollete, 2013. "Central Banking and Financial Stability in the Long Run," CESifo Working Paper Series 4272, CESifo.
    3. Cao, Jin & Chollete, Loran, 2014. "Capital Adequacy and Liquidity in Banking Dynamics: Theory and Regulatory Implications," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/16, University of Stavanger.
    4. Ramayandi, Arief & Rawat, Umang & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2014. "Can Low Interest Rates be Harmful: An Assessment of the Bank Risk-Taking Channel in Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 123, Asian Development Bank.
    5. Lukas Scheffknecht, 2013. "Contextualizing Systemic Risk," ROME Working Papers 201317, ROME Network.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramayandi, Arief & Rawat, Umang & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2014. "Can Low Interest Rates be Harmful: An Assessment of the Bank Risk-Taking Channel in Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 123, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Anatoli Segura & Alonso Villacorta, 2020. "Demand for safety, risky loans: A model of securitization," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1260, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    4. Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & José-Luis Peydró & Frank Smets, 2019. "Banking Supervision, Monetary Policy and Risk-Taking: Big Data Evidence from 15 Credit Registers," Working Papers 1137, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Ernesto Pasten, 2020. "Prudential Policies and Bailouts: A Delicate Interaction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 181-197, October.
    6. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    7. Cristina Badarau & Alexandra Popescu, 2015. "Monetary policy and financial stability: what role for the interest rate?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 359-374, September.
    8. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    9. Salvatore Perdichizzi & Matteo Cotugno & Giuseppe Torluccio, 2022. "Is the ECB’s conventional monetary policy state‐dependent? An event study approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 213-236, March.
    10. Angelo Melino, 2011. "Moving Monetary Policy Forward: Why Small Steps - and a Lower Inflation Target - Make Sense for the Bank of Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 319, January.
    11. Anderson, Haelim Park & Bluedorn, John C., 2017. "Stopping contagion with bailouts: Micro-evidence from Pennsylvania bank networks during the panic of 1884," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 139-149.
    12. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2013. "“Leaning against the wind” and the timing of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 179-194.
    14. Agur, Itai, 2019. "Monetary and macroprudential policy coordination among multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 192-209.
    15. Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2021. "Monetary policy at work: Security and credit application registers evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 789-814.
    16. Kahn, Charles M. & Wagner, Wolf, 2021. "Liquidity provision during a pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Lopomo Beteto Wegner, Danilo, 2015. "Government insurance, information, and asset prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-183.
    18. Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
    19. Jin Cao & Gerhard Illing, 2022. "Money in the Equilibrium of Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 119-144, February.
    20. Karl Aiginger, 2011. "Why Growth Performance Differed across Countries in the Recent Crisis: the Impact of Pre-crisis Conditions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 35-52, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emission allowance prices; GARCH; jumps; jump-induced variance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3794. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.