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"True Believers" or Numerical Terrorism at the Nuclear Power Plant

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  • Walter Kraemer
  • Gerhard Arminger

Abstract

For decades, there has been a heated debate about whether or not nuclear power plants contribute to childhood cancer in their respective neighbourhoods, with statisticians testifying on both sides. The present paper points to some flaws in the pro-arguments, taking a recent study prepared for the political party "Bündnis 90 / Grüne" as a specimen. Typical mistakes include an understatement of the size of tests of significance, disregard of important covariates and extreme reliance on very few selected data points.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Kraemer & Gerhard Arminger, 2010. ""True Believers" or Numerical Terrorism at the Nuclear Power Plant," CESifo Working Paper Series 3180, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3180
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3180.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCloskey, Donald N, 1983. "The Rhetoric of Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 481-517, June.
    2. Fertig Michael & Tamm Marcus, 2010. "Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 150-168, May.
    3. Denton, Frank T, 1985. "Data Mining as an Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 124-127, February.
    4. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
    5. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:150-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gigerenzer, Gerd & Krämer, Walter, 2004. "How to confuse with statistics or: the use and misuse of conditional probabilities," Technical Reports 2004,35, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    7. Enstrom, J.E., 1983. "Cancer mortality patterns around the San Onofre nuclear power plant, 1960-1978," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 73(1), pages 83-91.
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    Cited by:

    1. Walter Krämer, 2011. "The Cult of Statistical Significance – What Economists Should and Should Not Do to Make their Data Talk," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 131(3), pages 455-468.

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