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Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation

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  • Gebhard Flaig
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

This paper presents a stress indicator for the Euro-zone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country’s actual short-term interest rate and the interest rate that would prevail if that country was able to follow an “optimal” monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy rule corresponds to the policy rule that was adopted by the country in the pre-EMU period and depends on the trend growth rates of GDP and consumer prices as well as on the related cyclical components. The main results are that stress in the Euro-zone is mainly due to different trend growth rates and that for most of the Euro-zone countries interest rates have been too low over the 1999-2005 period. Stress in Germany is close to zero, implying that the ECB continues the policy of the Bundesbank.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebhard Flaig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1937, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1937
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & John Hassler & Tim Jenkinson & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 11-57, February.
    2. Mogaji, Peter Kehinde, 2015. "Policy Rule-based Stress Tests of Monetary Integration and Single Monetary Policy in the West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 86720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Amegashie, J. Atsu & Ouattara, Bazoumanna & Strobl, Eric, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," MPRA Paper 3158, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 May 2007.
    4. Gilles DUFRÉNOT, 2009. "Credit Policy Stress In The West African Economic And Monetary Union," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(4), pages 410-435, December.
    5. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2251, CESifo.
    6. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 156-176, May.
    7. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," NBP Working Papers 86, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    8. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "Die Europäische Währungsunion und der Verlust einer eigenständigen Geldpolitik," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 2(4), pages 35-43, December.
    9. Andrzej Torój, 2009. "Solving Forward-Looking Models of Cross-Country Adjustment within the Euro Area," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(3), pages 211-241, November.
    10. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "How Large Is the Stress from the Common Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100341, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "Is it really more dispersed? Measuring and comparing the stress from the common monetary policy in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2014/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. Dominic Quint, 2016. "Is it really more dispersed?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 593-621, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress indicator; Taylor rule; monetary union; divergence; trends; cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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