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Fundamentals, Misvaluation, and Investment: The Real Story

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  • Robert S. Chirinko
  • Huntley Schaller

Abstract

Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment" affects subsequent returns; and analyze the time path of the marginal product of capital in reaction to fundamental and misvaluation shocks. Besides these qualitative tests, we introduce a measure of misvaluation into standard investment equations to estimate the quantitative effect of misvaluation on investment. Overall, the evidence suggests that both fundamental and misvaluation shocks affect investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2007. "Fundamentals, Misvaluation, and Investment: The Real Story," CESifo Working Paper Series 1922, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cecchetti, Stephen G., 2006. "The Brave new World of Central Banking: Polcy Challenges posed by Asset Price Booms and Busts," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196, pages 107-119, April.
    2. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    3. Cecchetti, Stephen G., 2006. "The Brave new World of Central Banking: Polcy Challenges posed by Asset Price Booms and Busts," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196, pages 107-119, April.
    4. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    5. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Are Not Valid Measures of Financing Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 707-712.
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    Cited by:

    1. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2017. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1059-1103, April.
    3. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Capital Budgeting vs. Market Timing: An Evaluation Using Demographics," NBER Working Papers 15184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Krainer, Robert E., 2013. "Towards a program for financial stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 207-218.
    5. Krainer, Robert, 2009. "Portfolio and financing adjustments for U.S. banks: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2007. "Stock market misvaluation and corporate investment," MPRA Paper 3109, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2007.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; stock market; fundamentals; misvaluation; bubbles; real effects of financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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