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Demographics and the Political Sustainability of Pay-as-you-go Social Security

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  • Theodore C. Bergstrom
  • John L. Hartman

Abstract

The net present value of costs and benefits from a pay-as-you-go social security system are negative for young people and positive for the elderly. If people all vote their financial self-interest, there will be a pivotal age such that those who are younger favor smaller social security benefits and those who are older will favor larger benefits. For persons of each age and sex, we estimate the expected present value gained or lost from a small permanent increase in the amount of benefits, where the cost of these benefits is divided equally among the population of working age. Assuming that everyone votes his or her long run financial self-interest, and calculating the number of voters in the population of each age and sex, we can determine whether there is majority support for an increase or a decrease in social security benefits. We use statistics on the age distribution and mortality rates for the United States to explore the sensitivity of political support for social security to alternative assumptions about the discount rate, excess burden in taxation, voter participation rates, and birth, death, and migration rates. We find that a once-and-for-all decrease in benefits would be defeated by a majority of selfish voters under a wide range of parameters. We also study the predicted majority outcomes of votes on changing the retirement age.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore C. Bergstrom & John L. Hartman, 2005. "Demographics and the Political Sustainability of Pay-as-you-go Social Security," CESifo Working Paper Series 1378, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1378
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
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    4. Bohn, Henning, 1999. "Will social security and Medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-53, June.
    5. Uebelmesser Silke, 2004. "Political Feasibility of Pension Reforms," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2003. "Privatizing Social Security Under Balanced-Budget Constraints: A Political-Economy Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1039, CESifo.
    7. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-388, September.
    8. Henning Bohn, 2003. "Will Social Security and Medicare Remain Viable as the U.S. Population is Aging? An Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 1062, CESifo.
    9. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:503-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Bommier & Ronald Lee & Tim Miller & Stéphane Zuber, 2010. "Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 1-26, March.
    2. Daniel Hart & Robert Atkins, 2011. "American Sixteen- and Seventeen-Year-Olds Are Ready to Vote," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 633(1), pages 201-222, January.
    3. Razin, Assaf & Sand, Edith, 2007. "The Role of Immigration in Sustaining the Social Security System: A Political Economy Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Edith Sand & Assaf Razin, 2007. "The Survival of Social Security and Immigration," 2007 Meeting Papers 16, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. d'Andria, Diego, 2008. "The Debate on the Sustainability of Social Spending," MPRA Paper 11745, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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