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Strike While the Iron Is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Karadi
  • Anton Nakov
  • Galo Nuño
  • Ernesto Pastén
  • Dominik Thaler

Abstract

We study the Ramsey optimal monetary policy within the Golosov and Lucas (2007) state-dependent pricing framework. The model provides micro-foundations for a nonlinear Phillips curve: the sensitivity of inflation to activity increases after large shocks due to an endogenous rise in the frequency of price changes, as observed during the recent inflation surge. In response to large cost-push shocks, optimal policy leverages the lower sacrifice ratio to reduce inflation and stabilize the frequency of price adjustments. When facing total factor productivity shocks, an efficient disturbance, the optimal policy commits to strict price stability, similar to the prescription in the standard Calvo (1983) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Karadi & Anton Nakov & Galo Nuño & Ernesto Pastén & Dominik Thaler, 2024. "Strike While the Iron Is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," CESifo Working Paper Series 11372, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11372
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2022. "Managing Inequality Over Business Cycles: Optimal Policies With Heterogeneous Agents And Aggregate Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 511-540, February.
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    4. Andrey Alexandrov, 2020. "The Effects of Trend Inflation on Aggregate Dynamics and Monetary Stabilization," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_216, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1972. "A Theory of Monopolistic Price Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 39(1), pages 17-26.
    6. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
    7. Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Optimal Inflation Target in an Economy with Menu Costs and a Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 108-141, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    state-dependent pricing; large shocks; nonlinear Phillips curve; optimal monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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