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The Skewness of the Price Change Distribution: A New Touchstone for Sticky Price Models

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  • SHAOWEN LUO
  • DANIEL VILLAR

Abstract

We present a new way of empirically evaluating various sticky price models that are used to assess the degree of monetary nonneutrality. While menu cost models uniformly predict that price change skewness and dispersion fall with inflation, in the Calvo model, both rise. However, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the late 1970s onward show that skewness does not fall with inflation, while dispersion does. We present a random menu cost model that, with a menu cost distribution that has a strong Calvo flavor, can match the empirical patterns. The model exhibits much more monetary nonneutrality than existing menu cost models.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaowen Luo & Daniel Villar, 2021. "The Skewness of the Price Change Distribution: A New Touchstone for Sticky Price Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 41-72, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:1:p:41-72
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12700
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    2. Hong, Gee Hee & Klepacz, Matthew & Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael, 2023. "The real effects of monetary shocks: Evidence from micro pricing moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Abdelraouf, Nadine & Noureldin, Diaa, 2022. "The impact of the exchange rate regime on the dispersion of the price-change distribution: Evidence from a large panel of countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Ferreira, Thiago R.T., 2024. "Cross-sectional financial conditions, business cycles and the lending channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. DongIk Kang & Andrew Usher, 2023. "Does Product Revenue Matter for Price Setting and Monetary Policy Transmission?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 297-345, January.
    6. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2024. "Improving inflation forecasts using robust measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 735-745.
    7. Luo, Shaowen & Villar, Daniel, 2023. "Propagation of shocks in an input-output economy: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 26-46.

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