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Housing-Consumption Channel of Mortgage Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Nikodem Szumilo
  • Jagdish Tripathy
  • Gabriel Ahlfeldt

Abstract

We quantify the housing-consumption channel in mortgage demand according to which households borrow more following house-price increases since housing and non-housing consumption are imperfect substitutes. To identify this channel, we take a structural approach to mortgage demand and supply, exploiting exogenous variation in house-price growth and a unique dataset with matched transaction-price and mortgage information. We estimate an elasticity of mortgage borrowing to house-prices of 0.82. Counterfactual analysis of the general-equilibrium of housing and mortgage markets shows that, sans housing-consumption channel, mortgage and house-price growth in the UK would have been 50% and 31% lower, respectively, since the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nikodem Szumilo & Jagdish Tripathy & Gabriel Ahlfeldt, 2024. "Housing-Consumption Channel of Mortgage Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 11255, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11255
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    2. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    3. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    4. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    5. Hansen, Julia L. & Formby, John P. & Smith, W. James, 1996. "The Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing: Evidence from Concentration Curves," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-192, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; mortgage demand; housing consumption; consumption channel; property taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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