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Structural Change and the Climate Risk Premium during the Green Transition

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  • Sophie Zhou
  • Frederick van der Ploeg
  • Rick van der Ploeg

Abstract

We study climate change in a model with a carbon-intensive and a green sector, each subject to stochastic sectoral productivity shocks, and show how the underlying economic structure affects the risk-adjusted discount rate and the climate risk premium in the social cost of carbon (SCC). Consumption growth, aggregate consumption volatility, and the climate beta are all affected by the elasticity of substitution between the two sectors and the relative size of the sectors, and vary as the green transition progresses. The climate risk premium is hump-shaped during the green transition, with the climate beta playing a dominant role in its magnitude. For sufficiently strong substitutability between the two sectors and sufficiently low correlation between the sectoral shocks, decarbonisation can temporarily reduce aggregate consumption risk, as the climate beta becomes negative in the mid phase of the transition. The risk-adjusted discount rate first falls then rises during the green transition, leading to a SCC to GDP ratio that rises then falls as the green sector grows. We illustrate our analytical results numerically.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Zhou & Frederick van der Ploeg & Rick van der Ploeg, 2023. "Structural Change and the Climate Risk Premium during the Green Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 10840, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10840
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social cost of carbon; climate beta; carbon risk premium; two-sector model; asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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